Electric van sales rise 58% in October, but share is still less than half the 24% target

New electric van registrations rose 58.0% to 3,369 in October 2026, the best October on record, according to SMMT. They took 12.9% of the market, up from 9.2% a year earlier. But for vans up to 3.5 tonnes, the group the ZEV mandate covers, the share for the year so far is 9.7%, well under half the 24% target for 2026. For van buyers, that gap is why manufacturers are discounting electric vans, and why the Government’s coming decision on the mandate matters.

SMMT has also published its outlook. It expects electric vans to finish 2026 at 10.4%, and says the gap to the target will keep widening to 2028. Below we set the figures side by side, explain why October looks smaller than September, and look at what a buyer can get now, including the new Renault Trafic E-Tech, which went on pre-order on the same day.

What did the October van figures show?

The whole market grew. New van, pickup and 4x4 registrations rose 11.4% to 25,510, the seventh month of growth in a row, and are up 4.8% to 276,885 for the year to date, SMMT says.

Measure	October 2026	October 2025
All new vans, pickups and 4x4s	25,510 (up 11.4%)	22,894
Battery electric vans, all weights	3,369 (up 58.0%)	About 2,132 (our calculation)
Battery electric share, all weights	12.9%	9.2%
Battery electric vans up to 3.5 tonnes	2,781 (up 42.6%)	Not stated
Battery electric rigids, 3.5 to 4.25 tonnes	588 (up 223.1%)	Not stated
Electric share up to 3.5 tonnes, January to October	9.7%	8.4% (same period)

Source: SMMT.

Two different year-to-date shares are going around. SMMT’s headline 11.0% covers every battery electric light commercial vehicle, including the heavier rigids up to 4.25 tonnes. The 9.7% figure covers vans up to 3.5 tonnes only, and that is the one to set against the 24% target. Year to date, 27,207 electric vans up to 3.5 tonnes have been registered, up 21.9%.

The heavier electric vans are growing fastest. Registrations of battery electric rigids between 3.5 and 4.25 tonnes more than tripled in October. Many of those can be driven on a car licence, as our guide to 4.25-tonne electric vans and the licence rules explains.

Why is October lower than September?

In our September van sales report, electric vans hit a record 4,832. October’s 3,369 is lower, but that is not a fall in demand. September is a number plate change month, and it is always one of the biggest of the year: the whole van market was 49,704 in September against 25,510 in October.

The fairer comparison is with the same month a year earlier. On that basis, electric vans rose 58.0% while the market grew 11.4%, which is why the share rose from 9.2% to 12.9%. September’s share was 9.6%, so October’s mix was more electric even though volumes were smaller.

How far short of the target are electric vans?

This is where SMMT’s outlook matters. It gives a forecast for each of the next three years, alongside the mandate targets for vans up to 3.5 tonnes. We have added the gap in percentage points and the forecast as a share of the target.

Year	ZEV mandate target	SMMT forecast share	Gap (points)	Forecast as share of target
2026, year to date to October	24%	9.7% (actual)	14.3	40%
2026, full year	24%	10.4%	13.6	43%
2027	34%	14.9%	19.1	44%
2028	46%	18.8%	27.2	41%

Inputs: targets and forecasts from SMMT. The gap is the target minus the forecast. The last column is the forecast divided by the target, rounded. These are our calculations from SMMT’s figures, not SMMT’s own.

Two things stand out. First, on SMMT’s numbers electric vans are stuck at roughly 40% to 45% of what the mandate asks for, every year. Sales are rising, but the target rises just as fast. Second, because the targets climb by 10 to 12 points a year, the gap in points doubles, from 13.6 in 2026 to 27.2 in 2028. That is the basis for EV Fleet World’s headline that the gap will double by 2028.

To put the 2026 gap in vans: SMMT expects about 329,000 new light commercial vehicles this year. If 24% of a market that size were electric, that would be about 79,000 vans; at 10.4% it is about 34,000. That is a rough illustration only, because SMMT’s total includes pickups, 4x4s and heavier rigids, while the target figures refer to vans up to 3.5 tonnes.

Why does SMMT say demand is behind?

SMMT credits more than 40 zero-emission models on sale, the Plug-in Van Grant and the Depot Charging Scheme for the growth. But it says manufacturers “have been forced to provide heavy discounts to avoid even more punitive ZEV Mandate compliance costs”.

Mike Hawes, SMMT’s chief executive, said: “While electric van uptake is accelerating rapidly”, demand “remains far behind the optimistic and unrealistic expectations of the mandate.” He said the Government’s review “must provide clear and meaningful trajectory change before the year ends”, adding that this meant “not marginal tinkering”.

SMMT’s wider asks are a more realistic trajectory, a long-term commitment to purchase incentives, faster roll-out of public charging suited to vans, and priority for depot grid connections. Sue Robinson, chief executive of the dealer body NFDA, told EV Fleet World that “seven consecutive months of growth is encouraging”, and called for “realistic targets” alongside more charging investment.

Which vans sold best in October?

Diesel still dominates the top ten, but most of these models are also sold as electric versions, which is how a maker can push its electric share without losing a buyer.

Position	Model	October registrations
1	Ford Transit Custom	2,963
2	Mercedes-Benz Sprinter	2,020
3	Ford Transit	1,863
4	Volkswagen Transporter	1,449
5	Volkswagen Crafter	1,144
6	Peugeot Partner	1,134
7	Renault Trafic	1,034
8	Vauxhall Vivaro	995
9	Ford Ranger	794
10	Renault Master	727

Source: SMMT. Figures cover all fuel types.

By size, large vans between 2.5 and 3.5 tonnes rose 12.9% to 18,560, nearly three quarters of the market. Medium vans rose 14.3% to 3,825 and small vans fell 11.7% to 462. Pickups fell 17.7% to 1,764, and are down 52.9% for the year after tax changes that treat double-cab pickups as cars for benefit in kind and capital allowances.

What grant can I get on an electric van?

The grant is still open. According to GOV.UK, the maximum discount is £2,500 for some small vans under 2,500kg gross vehicle weight and £5,000 for some large vans between 2,500kg and 4,250kg. To qualify, a van must have zero tailpipe emissions and be able to cover at least 60 miles without emissions. Some vans can be sold at a 35% discount, the dealer takes the grant off the price, and GOV.UK warns that “there are a limited number of grants”.

Our list of vans eligible for the Plug-in Van Grant shows which models qualify. If you buy through a business, add the tax benefits of an electric van to see the full saving against a diesel.

How much is the new Renault Trafic E-Tech?

The new Trafic E-Tech, International Van of the Year 2027, opened for UK pre-orders on 5 November. EV Fleet World and Auto Express both report a starting price of £38,000 plus VAT before the grant, with the £5,000 grant on every version. First deliveries are due in the second quarter of 2027.

Version	Battery	Basic price	On-the-road price including grant
L1H1 Advance panel van	60kWh	£38,000	£41,715
L1H1 Advance panel van	81kWh	£43,000	£47,715
L2H1 Advance panel van	81kWh	£44,000	£48,915
L1H1 Extra panel van	81kWh	£44,500	£49,515
L2H1 Extra panel van	81kWh	£45,500	£50,715
L2H1 Advance crew van	81kWh	£46,500	£51,915
L2H1 Extra crew van	81kWh	£48,000	Not listed

Source: EV Fleet World.

A simple check on the entry van: £38,000 plus 20% VAT is £45,600, and £5,000 off that is £40,600. The published on-the-road figure of £41,715 is £1,115 higher, and the reports do not say what that covers, so ask the dealer for an itemised quote. A VAT-registered business can usually reclaim the VAT, which makes the price before VAT the more useful figure for most trade buyers.

EV Fleet World says the 81kWh battery gives up to 292 miles on the WLTP combined cycle, with 800-volt charging at up to 240kW, reaching 80% in under 20 minutes. Auto Express puts the 60kWh urban version at around 220 miles. Payload is up to 1.3 tonnes and towing up to 2 tonnes. Rivals in this size include the Ford E-Transit Custom, which we compare with Kia’s newcomer in our Kia PV5 Cargo vs Ford E-Transit Custom report.

What happens next with the van target?

The Government consulted on lowering the 2030 van target from 70%, with options of 60%, 50% and 40%, which we set out in our van target consultation report. EV Fleet World reports that the Government’s response is due by the end of the year. Who makes that call is covered in our report on the ZEV mandate decision.

Until then, the 2026 to 2028 targets in the table above stand, and manufacturers will keep looking for ways to close the gap, which for buyers mostly means discounts.

Our view

A 58% rise in a month is real progress, and the fastest growth is in the heavier electric vans between 3.5 and 4.25 tonnes. But SMMT’s own forecasts show sales stuck at around 40% to 45% of each year’s target, so the policy argument will not go away.

For a buyer, the practical points are simple. If you can charge at home or at a depot, the grant of up to £5,000 is available now, and makers under mandate pressure have a reason to deal, so ask for the grant and any extra discount on a written quote. If you are waiting for the new Trafic E-Tech, deliveries start in the second quarter of 2027, so check that the grant still applies when you order, as GOV.UK says the number of grants is limited.