Electric van target could fall from 70% to 40% by 2030
The Government is consulting on four 2030 options for vans, from keeping 70% to cutting it to 60%, 50% or 40%. Responses close on 23 October. Here is what each option means for van buyers.
Quick answers
- The Department for Transport's ZEV mandate review, launched on 14 August 2026, offers four options for the 2030 van target: keep 70%, or cut it to 60%, 50% or 40%.
- The current van trajectory is 24% in 2026, 70% in 2030 and 100% in 2035, and the 2035 end date is not part of the options.
- Three of the options lower the 2030 figure and require steeper growth after 2030, while the fourth keeps 70% and extends key flexibilities to 2034.
- The NFDA submitted its response on 25 September 2026, asking for 40% for vans and 60% for cars by 2030.
- Electric vans took 10.8% of the UK market year to date in September, less than half the 24% target for 2026, and the consultation closes at 11.59pm on 23 October 2026.
The Government is consulting on cutting the 2030 electric van target from 70% to as little as 40%, with responses due by 11.59pm on 23 October 2026. The Department for Transport’s ZEV mandate review, launched on 14 August, offers four options for vans, and the choice will shape how hard manufacturers push electric vans, and discount diesel ones, over the next four years (Motor Transport).
Vans are the hardest part of the mandate to hit. Electric vans took 10.8% of the market year to date in September, against a 24% target for this year (SMMT). Our September van sales report covers the numbers in full.
What are the four options for vans?
The current van trajectory is 24% in 2026, 34% in 2027, 70% in 2030 and 100% in 2035 (SMMT). The consultation keeps the 2035 end date, so new petrol and diesel vans are still due to be phased out by 2030 and all new vans must be zero emission by 2035 (EV Fleet World).
| Option | 2030 van target | What else changes |
|---|---|---|
| Current rules | 70% | Nothing |
| Option 1 | 60% | Steeper growth after 2030 |
| Option 2 | 50% | Steeper growth after 2030 |
| Option 3 | 40% | Steeper growth after 2030 |
| Option 4 | 70% | Key flexibilities extended to 2034 |
Source: EV Fleet World, Motor Transport.
Flexibilities are the mechanisms that let manufacturers meet the target without selling the full share of zero-emission vans in a given year. Keeping them to 2034 softens the 70% figure without changing it on paper.
What does the industry want?
The NFDA submitted its response on 25 September 2026, proposing a 40% zero-emission van target and a 60% car target by 2030 (Motor Trader). For comparison, the current car target for 2030 is 80%. It also asks for extra credits for zero-emission vans and more proportionate compliance payments, and points to range, payload, towing and access to charging as the main business concerns (AM Online).
SMMT chief executive Mike Hawes welcomed the review, saying that “regulatory targets are now running ahead of current consumer demand, so this review is a timely opportunity to optimise the pace of change” (SMMT). The cars side of the review is covered in our ZEV mandate review explainer.
Why vans are harder than cars
A van is a work tool, so buyers weigh payload, range with a full load and depot charging before they consider price. Sole traders who park on the street cannot easily charge overnight, and fleets can wait on grid upgrades. Those points are why the NFDA singles out range, payload and charging.
The gap is large. SMMT’s figures show electric vans at 10.8% year to date against the 24% target, and the 2027 requirement of 34% is higher again. If manufacturers cannot close that gap by selling more electric vans, they face compliance costs, which could mean fewer discounts on diesel vans, or higher prices for them.
What would each option mean for van buyers?
This is our reading rather than a published forecast.
- A lower 2030 target (options 1 to 3): less pressure on manufacturers to push electric vans through discounting, and less pressure to ration diesel supply. The steeper growth after 2030 would still leave 2035 as the end point.
- Option 4: the 70% target stays, but flexibilities give manufacturers more room to meet it indirectly. For buyers, the effect on discounts would be harder to read.
- Either way: the 2035 end date is not in question in the consultation, so a van bought today will still face a fully zero-emission new market within its working life. Electric vans can still be eligible for the Plug-in Van Grant.
What this means for you
Nothing changes for you today: the 24% target for 2026 still applies and the consultation is not law. If you run a business with a depot and predictable routes, the economics of an electric van do not depend on the mandate. Our guides to electric vans for sole traders and the tax benefits of electric vans show where the case is strongest.
If you are waiting to see what happens before buying a diesel, note that a weaker target would not reverse the 2030 phase-out of new diesel vans. If you want to influence the outcome, you can respond through the GOV.UK consultation page before 23 October. For the wider effect on prices, see how the ZEV mandate gap is shaping EV discounts.
How we test and where our numbers come from
Range figures are official WLTP combined values taken from manufacturer UK specification pages, with real-world estimates drawn from independent comparative testing. Prices are UK list prices at the time of the latest update. Tax, grant and charging-scheme figures come from GOV.UK and HMRC publications. We re-check every guide when pricing, specification or policy changes. Last checked 6 October 2026.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current 2030 electric van target?
Under the existing ZEV mandate, 70% of new vans sold in 2030 must be zero emission, rising to 100% in 2035. The 2026 requirement is 24%.
What are the options for vans in the ZEV mandate consultation?
Options one, two and three cut the 2030 van target to 60%, 50% and 40% respectively, with steeper growth after 2030. Option four keeps 70% but extends key flexibilities to 2034.
Does the consultation change the 2035 deadline for vans?
No. Reporting on the consultation says the end dates are unchanged: new petrol and diesel cars and vans are due to be phased out by 2030, and all new cars and vans must be zero emission by 2035.
When does the ZEV mandate consultation close?
At 11.59pm on 23 October 2026. You can respond through the GOV.UK consultation page.
What does the NFDA want for vans?
The National Franchised Dealers Association proposes a 40% zero-emission van target and a 60% zero-emission car target by 2030, plus extra credits for zero-emission vans and more proportionate compliance payments.
Sources and further reading
- gov.ukGOV.UKPrimary source referenced in this article.
- motortransport.co.ukGovernment considers cutting 2030 ZEV target for vans to 40%The four van options and the possible reduction from 70% to as little as 40%.
- evfleetworld.co.ukControversial ZEV mandate consultation opens as UK mulls softer EV sales targetsOption four's extension of flexibilities to 2034 and the unchanged 2030 and 2035 end dates.
- motortrader.comNFDA submits ZEV Mandate consultation responseThe NFDA's 25 September response proposing 60% for cars and 40% for vans.
- am-online.comNFDA proposes lower 2030 ZEV mandate targets for cars and vansThe NFDA's request for extra van credits and its points on range, payload and charging.
- smmt.co.ukZEV mandate consultation: van sector reactionMike Hawes's comments and the 24% (2026), 34% (2027) and 70% (2030) van targets.
- smmt.co.ukSeptember's record electric van uptake still less than half mandatedSeptember 2026 van registrations and the year-to-date electric share.
EV Compared
The EV Compared editorial team tracks the UK electric vehicle market full time: new model launches, list prices, WLTP and real-world range, public charging tariffs and the tax rules that decide what an EV actually costs to run. Every guide is checked against manufacturer specifications and official GOV.UK figures, and updated whenever the numbers move.
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