ZEV mandate review: 2030 EV target could fall from 80% to 50%

The government is consulting on cutting the UK’s 2030 electric car target from 80% of new car sales to 70%, 60% or as little as 50%, and the consultation closes at 11:59pm on 23 October 2026. The Department for Transport’s review of the ZEV mandate comes with battery electric cars on 26.2% of new car sales so far this year, against a 33% target. For anyone buying a new car in the next few years, the result will decide how hard carmakers have to push electric models, and so how keenly they price them.

The Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate makes each carmaker sell a rising share of zero emission cars: 33% this year, then 38% in 2027, 52% in 2028, 66% in 2029 and 80% in 2030, before 100% in 2035. Our guide to how the ZEV mandate works explains the credits and penalties behind it. A mid-point review was always due no later than 2027, but ministers brought it forward (EV Infrastructure News). The consultation opened on 14 August, and the government intends to complete the review by early 2027.

What are the four options for cars?

The consultation sets out four pathways for cars (edie). Three cut the 2030 headline target, and at least one would lower the annual targets from as soon as 2027. The fourth keeps 80% but gives carmakers more ways to meet it.

Pathway	2030 car target	What changes
Current law	80%	38% in 2027, 52% in 2028, 66% in 2029
Lower from 2027	70%	Annual targets reduced from 2027
Gradual	60%	Slower trajectory up to 2030
Lowest	50%	Lowest trajectory of the four
Keep 80%	80%	Borrowing, banking and CO2 conversion extended to 2034

That last option matters more than it sounds. Banking lets a brand carry surplus credits forward, borrowing lets it draw on future years, and CO2 conversion lets it earn credits by cutting emissions from its petrol and hybrid cars. Keeping all three until 2034 would let a brand fall short of the headline share on sales alone and still comply.

Vans get a parallel set of choices: 60%, 50% or 40% by 2030 against 70% today, or 70% with key flexibilities extended to 2034 (EV Fleet World). We cover those in our report on the electric van target consultation.

How far is the market from 80%?

Battery electric cars took 26.2% of new car registrations from January to September 2026, according to the SMMT, even after the record month covered in our September sales report. By our maths, reaching 80% in 2030 means roughly tripling that share in four years. Even the 50% option would need it to almost double.

Industry leaders do not think the market is on course. In the SMMT’s Business Leaders Barometer, none of the vehicle manufacturer and supplier bosses surveyed said the UK was on track for 80% in 2030: 74% said it was significantly behind and 26% slightly behind (AM Online).

The catch: 2035 does not move

Every pathway still ends with 100% of new cars zero emission in 2035. A lower 2030 figure therefore means a steeper climb afterwards.

2030 car target	Rise needed from 2030 to 2035	Average rise each year
80% (current law)	20 percentage points	4 points
70%	30 percentage points	6 points
60%	40 percentage points	8 points
50%	50 percentage points	10 points

EV Compared calculations, assuming the 2035 end point stays at 100%.

Today’s schedule front-loads the effort, with 14-point rises each year from 38% in 2027 to 80% in 2030, then just 4 points a year to 2035. The 50% option would swap that for an average 10-point rise every year for the five years after 2030, so the hard work moves rather than disappears.

Who wants what?

Group	Represents	Position
SMMT	Carmakers	Targets are running ahead of consumer demand
NFDA	Franchised dealers	60% for cars and 40% for vans by 2030, plus more flexibility
ChargeUK	Charge point operators	Government should be bold; little public support for slowing down
Climate Change Committee	Government’s climate advisers	Called on the government to “stand firm”

SMMT chief Mike Hawes said regulatory targets are “running ahead of current consumer demand”, and that the rules increasingly dictate consumer choice and so carmakers’ future strategies and viability (EV Fleet World). The Climate Change Committee had earlier urged the government to stand firm on the mandate. Hawes hit back that its assumption of 95% of the new car and van market going electric by 2030 did not reflect market realities (AM Online).

Dealers have already responded formally. The National Franchised Dealers Association submitted its response on 25 September, proposing 60% for cars and 40% for vans in 2030, with extra credits for zero emission vans and more proportionate compliance payments (Motor Trader). That sits in the middle of the government’s three lower options.

The charging industry is on the other side. ChargeUK chair Iain Coucher urged ministers to be bold and said there is limited public support for slowing the transition (Renewable Energy Magazine). Charging firms need a fast-growing EV fleet to fill their chargers, so a lower target hits their business case directly.

What is not changing?

The end points are not up for debate. The phase-out of new pure petrol and diesel cars in 2030 and the requirement for all new cars and vans to be zero emission by 2035 are not under review, and hybrids can still be sold until 2035. Our explainer on where the 2030 and 2035 rules stand has more on the two deadlines.

In practice, the 2030 target decides how much of that year’s market can still be hybrid: one new car in five under current law, or one in two under the 50% option.

This year’s 33% target is not affected either. The 38% due in 2027 is the first target the review could change.

What would a softer target mean for prices and choice?

Carmakers that are short of their targets cut prices and push finance offers on electric cars to sell more of them. That has made the mandate good news for EV buyers, and it explains much of the discounting we track in our report on the ZEV mandate gap and year-end EV deals. A lower target from 2027 would ease that pressure, and we would expect mandate-driven discounts to shrink with it.

A softer target would also give brands more room to keep petrol models on sale until 2030 and hybrids until 2035, rather than steering buyers towards electric versions. We do not expect fewer electric models to arrive, because the 2035 deadline still forces every brand to go fully electric, but the push to sell them would be weaker.

What this means for you

• Buying before Christmas: the review cannot change the 2026 target, so the year-end pressure on carmakers stays in place. Cars registered before 31 December are where the best deals should be.
• Buying in 2027 or later: if targets fall from 2027, the main force behind EV discounts weakens. Our guide to whether to buy an EV now or wait for cheaper models weighs up the trade-off.
• Having your say: responses can be submitted through the GOV.UK consultation page until 11:59pm on 23 October.
• Driving petrol: the mandate applies to carmakers’ new car sales, so it does not stop you buying or keeping a petrol car.

Our take: cutting the 2030 figure without moving 2035 does not make the switch easier, it moves the hardest years later. The 50% option would need the electric share of new car sales to rise by an average of 10 points a year from 2030 to 2035, against 4 points a year under current law. Whatever ministers decide by early 2027, the credibility of that 2035 date is the question to watch.