Electric cars take 32% of UK sales in October, the highest share of 2026

Almost one in three new cars registered in the UK in October 2026 was fully electric. Battery electric registrations rose 32.7% to 48,858, a 32.0% share of the market and the highest of the year, according to the SMMT. For drivers, the message is that carmakers are pushing hard to register electric cars before 31 December, which keeps discounts on the table, but the year as a whole is still well short of the 33% the ZEV mandate asks for.

The SMMT links the rise to manufacturers working to close the gap to the annual target. Its own forecast is that 2026 will finish at 27.2%. By our calculation, reaching 33% would need about seven in every ten new cars registered in November and December to be electric.

What did the October 2026 figures show?

The whole new car market rose 5.4% to 152,730, the 11th monthly rise in a row, though the SMMT notes that growth was about half the 9.8% rate of the year so far. Electric cars did most of the growing, while petrol, diesel and conventional hybrids all fell.

Fuel type	October 2026	Change on October 2025	Share (October 2025)
Battery electric	48,858	up 32.7%	32.0% (25.4%)
Plug-in hybrid	22,898	up 30.1%	15.0% (12.1%)
Hybrid	18,287	down 5.0%	12.0% (13.3%)
Petrol	56,876	down 11.6%	37.2% (44.4%)
Diesel	5,811	down 15.9%	3.8% (4.8%)
Total market	152,730	up 5.4%

Source: SMMT, 5 November 2026.

Electrified cars, meaning battery electric, plug-in hybrid and hybrid together, took 59.0% of the month. Private buyers registered 58,229 cars, up 4.1%, and fleets 89,985, up 5.4%. The SMMT does not split electric registrations by buyer type in its release, so we cannot say how much of October’s rise came from private drivers.

How does October compare with earlier months?

October’s share is the best of 2026 and clearly ahead of last year. It also beats September, which set a record for volume but not for share, because the plate-change month brings in large numbers of petrol and hybrid cars too. Our September sales report covers that month in detail.

Period	Battery electric share
October 2025	25.4%
September 2026	28.3%
October 2026	32.0%
January to September 2026	26.2%
January to October 2026	26.6%
SMMT forecast for 2026	27.2%
2026 ZEV mandate target	33%

Sources: SMMT October and September 2026 releases.

The year-to-date share moved from 26.2% to 26.6% in a single month. That shows the problem with a late push: October is a small month, with fewer than half September’s registrations, so even a strong share only nudges the annual figure.

How many more electric cars are needed to reach 33%?

The SMMT’s release does not give a “cars needed” figure, so we have worked it out from its own numbers. The inputs are the SMMT’s year-to-date totals and its latest market outlook, dated October 2026, which expects 2.219 million new cars to be registered this year.

Step	Figure
SMMT outlook for the 2026 market	2,219,000
Registered January to October	1,892,000
Implied November and December market	about 327,000
33% of the full-year market	about 732,300
Electric cars registered January to October	503,805
More electric cars needed in November and December	about 228,500
Share of November and December registrations	about 70%

EV Compared calculation from SMMT figures. The outlook is a forecast and could change.

For comparison, the SMMT’s own 27.2% forecast implies about 603,600 electric cars for the year, or about 99,800 in November and December. That works out at roughly 30.5% of those two months, close to what October achieved. On that forecast, the market would finish about 129,000 electric cars short of a straight 33%.

In early October, the SMMT said about 265,000 more electric cars were needed in the final quarter, based on its earlier 2.183 million outlook. We covered that in our report on the ZEV mandate gap and year-end discounts. October’s 48,858 cars reduced the gap, but the SMMT has since raised its market forecast, and a bigger market means a bigger 33% target in absolute terms.

Does missing 33% mean carmakers will be fined?

Not necessarily. The target applies to each manufacturer rather than to the whole market, and the mandate’s flexibilities let brands borrow credits from future years, earn credits by cutting CO2 from their petrol cars and buy credits from rivals that are ahead. Analysts at New AutoMotive put the real 2026 requirement, after those flexibilities, at 24.6%, according to EV Fleet World. That is New AutoMotive’s estimate, not an official figure.

On that reading, the market as a whole has already passed the effective bar, but individual brands can still be behind. Borrowed credits have to be repaid later and bought credits cost money, so every extra electric car registered before 31 December still helps a brand that is short. Our guide to the ZEV mandate rules explains how the credits work.

Are electric cars about to overtake petrol?

They are closer than ever. Petrol took 37.2% of October’s registrations and battery electric cars 32.0%, a gap of 5.2 percentage points, or 8,018 cars. A year earlier the gap was 19.0 points (44.4% against 25.4%).

Electrek describes this as the closest the two have been, and projects that electric cars could outsell petrol as soon as December, when electric share usually rises. That is Electrek’s own projection rather than an SMMT forecast. It also depends on definitions: the SMMT counts mild hybrids within its petrol and diesel figures, so “petrol” here includes many cars with a small battery assisting the engine.

For the year to date, the gap is wider. Petrol has 41.1% (778,492 cars) against 26.6% for electric, so a single crossover month would be a milestone rather than a change in the overall picture.

Which electric cars sold best in October?

The best-selling new car overall in October was the Jaecoo 7, with 3,412 registrations, just ahead of the Ford Puma on 3,369, according to the SMMT. Among battery electric models, the Skoda Enyaq led.

Rank	Battery electric model	October 2026 registrations
1	Skoda Enyaq	1,568
2	Mini Countryman	1,494
3	Jaecoo 5	1,465
4	Vauxhall Frontera	1,331
5	Audi Q4 e-tron	1,234
6	BYD Seal	1,207
7	BMW iX3	1,141
8	Ford Puma	1,077
9	Kia EV3	1,036
10	Leapmotor B10	1,028

Source: SMMT. Electrek and EV Fleet World report the same top three.

The list is spread thinly. No electric model passed 1,600 registrations, and Electrek reports that Tesla registered only 282 cars in the month, with no model in the top ten. The more than 180 electric models now on sale, a figure Electrive gives, mean demand is split across many brands rather than led by one or two.

What does the SMMT say about the targets?

The SMMT welcomed the progress but warned about the cost. “Almost one in three new cars registered in October was electric,” said chief executive Mike Hawes, calling it “great progress in the transition, but one that comes at enormous cost.”

He added: “Higher targets may force supply, but they do not create demand.” The SMMT wants the targets cut substantially and says “the ZEV Mandate review must deliver substantive reform effective immediately.”

Its forecasts show why it is worried. We have turned the share gaps into numbers of cars using the SMMT’s market outlook for each year.

Year	ZEV mandate target	SMMT forecast share	Gap in points	Gap in cars (our sums)
2026	33%	27.2%	5.8	about 129,000
2027	38%	32.0%	6.0	about 136,000
2028	52%	37.5%	14.5	about 336,000

EV Compared calculation: target share minus forecast share, multiplied by the SMMT outlook of 2.219 million (2026), 2.267 million (2027) and 2.320 million (2028).

The SMMT also criticised the Budget, which confirmed the new pay-per-mile Electric Vehicle Excise Duty from 2028 and kept 20% VAT on public charging. Our report on what the Budget did for public charging has the detail.

What happens next with the ZEV mandate review?

The government’s consultation on the ZEV mandate closed on 23 October 2026, and GOV.UK says it is analysing the feedback. No outcome has been published. The options under discussion include lowering the 2030 target from 80%, which we cover in our report on the 2030 target consultation. Reports say First Secretary of State Louise Haigh will take the decision, as set out in our report on Andy Burnham stepping aside.

The SMMT’s figures will feed into that decision. A 2028 gap of more than 14 points is the industry’s strongest argument for softer targets. The same figures also show how quickly the market can move: electric share rose from 25.4% to 32.0% between October 2025 and October 2026. For the longer view, see our analysis of UK EV market trends in 2026.

Our view

October shows that UK electric car demand is real when prices and choice are right: almost a third of new cars, with ten different models selling more than 1,000 each. It also shows how far the market still is from 33% for the year, and that the gap is being closed with discounts that the SMMT says cannot last.

For a buyer, the practical point is the same as it was in October. Brands that are short of their target have every reason to register electric cars before 31 December, so a car in stock or due for delivery before Christmas gives you the most room to negotiate. Compare offers from more than one brand, ask for the discount and any Electric Car Grant to be shown separately, and do not assume the same deals will be there in 2027 if the review eases the targets.